NFL Week 16 Best Bets from Will Hill

[carlitosway]

Here are my NFL Week 16 best bets:

Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens -6.5 ​

You will hear and see the trends all week about the games between the Steelers and Ravens, which are always close, and how taking the points is the way to go. I think the series history provides some value on the favorite, but the reputation these teams have for playing close games makes the line lower than it should be. The Ravens are significantly better than the Steelers and were 3.5-point road favorites in Pittsburgh earlier this season. This is also a very favorable spot for the Ravens, who are the much healthier team right now. The Ravens had a bye two weeks ago and a mini-bye last week as they steamrolled the Giants and were able to rest their starters late in an easy win. No George Pickens again for the Steelers this week, and no change of pace quarterback Justin Fields means very limited firepower for the underdog. All streaks and trends get broken at some point. I think the Ravens roll.
NFL Week 16 Best Bet: Baltimore Ravens – 6.5

Minnesota Vikings at Seattle Seahawks +3​

The Vikings are perhaps the best story in the NFL this season. With a preseason win total set at 6.5, they are 12-2 with castoff Sam Darnold and have a legitimate chance at being the 1-seed in the NFC. While they have won seven games in a row, let’s review the quarterbacks they’ve faced over this win streak—Joe Flacco, Mac Jones, Will Levis, Kyler Murray, Kirk Cousins, and Caleb Williams. Against Kyler Murray and the Cardinals, the Vikings were outgained by 130 yards, and against the Falcons and the now-benched Kirk Cousins, the Vikings gave up over 7 yards per play. The Seahawks look to be getting quarterback Geno Smith back after he missed part of last week’s loss to the Packers, and that’s enough for me to take the home ‘dog and fade the overvalued Vikings.
NFL Week 16 Best Bet: Seattle Seahawks +3